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Themed by EnjuFolio · Crafted by Elara Liu

Explainable AI–Driven Integration of Health and Sleep Metrics for Enhanced Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

Zhuoran Liu

Advised by:Dr. Mohammad Moshirpour (University of California, Irvine)

ICS Honor Program (UCI)Dec, 2023

Keywords:
Explainable AICardiovascular DiseaseSleepHealth Informatics

Abstract

I led an honors thesis that builds an interpretable ML model combining standard cardiovascular risk factors with sleep quality, duration, and efficiency, using regularized logistic regression and SHAP explanations to show how sleep shapes predicted risk and improves identification of high-risk individuals.

As part of the UCI ICS Honors Program, I designed and implemented an end-to-end pipeline on the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort, starting from cleaning and reshaping 230+ clinical and polysomnography variables and converging on a compact, stable set of predictors. I iteratively refined the feature set, regularization strategy, and evaluation protocol whenever models overfit or produced confusing explanations, discussing edge cases with my advisor until we could surface sleep-related metrics as clear, defensible signals rather than opaque covariates. The final framework lets clinicians see how changes in sleep efficiency, non-REM duration, and onset latency shift cardiovascular risk estimates, and it motivated follow-up conversations about extending the approach to wearable-derived sleep data and broader, more diverse cohorts.